Just before a referendum on a school budget, a local newspaper polls 390 voters to predict whether the budget will pass. suppose the budget has the support of 53% of the voters. what is the probability that the newspaper's sample will lead it to predict defeat?

Since 52% of the voters support the newspaper budget, so: [ 100% - 52% ] = 48% of the voters do not support the budget and thus lead it to predict defeat. Now to find the probability that the newspapers sample will lead it to predict defeat, simply divide the number of voters who predict defeat over the total number of voters. That is: The number of voters who predict defeat = 48% out of 358 voters (48/100) * 358 = 171.84 So the probability that the sample will lead it to predict defeat = [ 171.84 / 358 ] 0.48 That was the classic way of solving such problems. Another way to solve this problem is simply since you have he percentage of voters who vote against the budget which is 48% = 48/100 = 0.48, so this percentage will be the probability that the newspapers sample will lead it to predict defeat.

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