How often would measurements have to be made to find an overestimate and an underestimate (for the quantity of pollutants that escaped) during the first six months which differ by exactly 1 ton from each other

there are lots of ways.   pick's theorem tells us if the vertices are lattice points the area a is

a = b/2 + i - 1

where b is the number of boundary lattice points and i is the number of interior lattice points.

in the figure i count b=16, i=50 so

a = 8 + 50 - 1 = 57

let's try the shoelace formula.   the area is half the sum of the cross products of the sides.  

a(-2,6)   -2(2)-6(-5) = 26

b(-5,2)   -5(-3) - 2(-2) = 19

c(-2,-3) -2(-3) - (-3)(4) = 18

d(4,-3)   4(3) - (-3)(5) = 27

e(5,3)   5(3) - 3(1) = 12

f(1,3)     1(6) - 3(-2) = 12

a(-2,6)

each of the cross products is twice the area of the triangle with the associated side and one vertex the origin. so the area of abo=26/2=13.

area = (1/2) (26 + 19 +   18 + 27 + 12 + 12) = 57

that checks!

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