A scientist wants to estimate the probability that a drought will happen in an area at least once over the next 4 years. The chances of a drought happening in a given year is 12%. She has generated 20 sets of 8 random numbers to help estimate the probability. Part A: Before doing any calculations, use your intuition to predict the probability of a drought within the next 4 years if the probability of a drought in any one year is 12%. (1 point)
Part B: Which pairs of digits, starting at 00, represent a drought happening? Which pairs of digits, ending at 99, represent a drought not happening? (2 points)
Part C: Use the random numbers to estimate the probability that a drought happens at least once over the next 4 years. (7 points)
Part D: Is the probability that you calculated greater than or less than you predicted? Explain. (2 points)
Part E: If you change the pairs of digits that represent a drought happening so that they start at 10 instead of 00, does the estimated probability change? Calculate the estimated probability using the new ranges of numbers. (8 points)