(Extra Credit) Eighty percent of the light aircraft that disappear while in flight in a certain country are subsequently discovered. Of the aircraft that are discovered, 75% have an emergency locator, whereas 90% of the aircraft not discovered do not have such a locator. Suppose a light aircraft has disappeared. If it has an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will not be discovered?

0.0323 = 3.23% probability that it will not be discovered

Step-by-step explanation:

Bayes Theorem:

Two events, A and B.

In which P(B|A) is the probability of B happening when A has happened and P(A|B) is the probability of A happening when B has happened.

In this question:

Event A: Has emergency locator

Event B: Probability it will not be discovered.

Eighty percent of the light aircraft that disappear while in flight in a certain country are subsequently discovered.

So 20% are not discovered, which means that .

90% of the aircraft not discovered do not have such a locator.

So 10% of the aircraft discovered have the location, which means that

Probability of having the locator:

75% of 80%(Discovered).

10% of 20%(Not discovered). So

If it has an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will not be discovered?

0.0323 = 3.23% probability that it will not be discovered

d

gimmee one of those gold crowns!

~coco