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Mathematics, 29.08.2020 01:01 lalalooowt
According to data released by FiveThirty Eight (data drawn on Monday, August 17th, 2020), Donald Trump wins an Electoral College majority in the 2020 US Presidential Election in 10,997 simulations out of a total of 40,000 simulations.
(a) I am interested in the probability that Donald Trump wins any one simulation from the Five Thirty Eight model. Write the parameter of interest. Write and calculate the estimate of your parameter using mathematical notation.
(b) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the parameter from (a), show at least 4 significant digits. I highly recommend using R, and only rounding at the end.
(c) TRUE or FALSE:
According to the FiveThirty Eight model, there is a 95% probability that the true parameter of interest from
(a) lies within your interval from (b).
(d) TRUE or FALSE:
If I were to repeat samples of 40,000 from the Five Thirty Eight model, I expect 95% of my sample statistics from (a) to lie within your interval from (b).
(e) TRUE or FALSE:
If I were to repeat samples of 40,000 from the FiveThirty Eight model, I expect 95% of samples to lead to 95% confidence intervals that cover the true parameter of interest from (a).
(f) People often misinterpret the FiveThirty Eight model to say that our previous results suggest that Donald Trump "shouldn't" or "won't" win the election. Explain why this is not a correct interpretation. Suggest, calculate, and explain an alternative conclusion from the simulation results that is more intuitive and interpretable.
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According to data released by FiveThirty Eight (data drawn on Monday, August 17th, 2020), Donald Tru...
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