1. State whether the following is a classical or Bayesian (subjective) probability, and explain why (1 pt for correct id and 1 pt for explanation): a. The chance of getting a 5 on a fair 6-sided die is 1/6. b. The chance that the shelter-at-home restrictions in the SF Bay Area will be lifted by May 3 is 50%. c. There is a 95% chance of an additional major correction (drop of 20% or more) in the stock market in the next 2 months. d. The chance a baby will be born male is 51%. (Hint: this). e. If you flip a fair coin many times, about 50% of the time you will have gotten heads.

a. Classical Probability.

b. Classical Probability.

c. Bayesian Probability

d. Bayesian Probability.

e. Classical Probability.

Explanation:

In classical probability, each event has an equal likelihood of occurring.

However, Bayesian probability is a probability based on belief or a state of knowledge.

a. The chance of getting a 5 on a fair 6-sided die is 1/6.

This is a Classical Probability. There are 6 sides and getting each side has an equal probability of 1/6.

b. The chance that the shelter-at-home restrictions in the SF Bay Area will be lifted by May 3 is 50%.

This is also a Classical Probability. The are two possible occurrences, either it will be lifted or not and each has an equal probability of 50%.

c. There is a 95% chance of an additional major correction (drop of 20% or more) in the stock market in the next 2 months.

This is an example of Bayesian Probability as it is based on the belief of the speaker probably from his/her analysis of the trend in the stock market.

d. The chance a baby will be born male is 51%.

This is an example of Bayesain Probability. Each gender is supposed to have an equal chance of 50%.

e. If you flip a fair coin many times, about 50% of the time you will have gotten heads.

In a fair coin, the Probability of getting a head or a tail is equal. Since the probability given is 50%, it is a Classical Probability.

step-by-step explanation:

30% of $420 is 0.30($420) = $126 and $420 + $126 = $546.

or, 130% of $420 is 1.3($420) = $546.

notice that this is not the $600 original list price with which we started.

why doesn't this work?

the method does not work because 30% of $420 is not the same amount as the 30% of $600. it may seem obvious when stated this way, but it is a very common error made on problems of this type. we cannot just use the same percent and get back to the original amount because we are taking that percent of a different value.

to work problems of this type correctly, it is generally best to write an equation for the situation and then solve.

example: since (100% – 30%)(original price) = (sale price)

70% of the   (original price) is $420.

0.7x   = 420

equation image indicator

x = 600

the original cost was $600.

we may also solve this problem using the two-step method. working the problem in two steps requires us to use more algebra skills. we have to know that x = 1x (identity property of multiplicationtext annotation indicator) and that 1x – 0.3x = 0.7x (subtracting like terms). then we solve the problem as follows:

(original price) – 30%(original price) = sale price

x – 0.3x = 420

0.7x = $420

equation image indicator

x = 600

the original cost was $600.  

note that with both of the above methods we do obtain the correct original amount.

example: after a 5% pay raise, hermione is earning $22,680 per year. what was she earning before the pay raise?

105% of (original salary) = current salary

1.05x = 22,680

equation image indicator

x = 21,600

hermione earned $21,600 per year before the pay raise.

this is an example so maybe you will get how to at least do it!

wedfghjkl;

tyuiop[]ghjkl;

step-by-step explanatio89