3. A lie detector has two kinds of errors: The probability of detecting a lie when the subject is telling the truth is 0.05. The probability of not detecting a lie when the subject is lying is 0.15. The probability a subject lies is 0.10. What is the probability a subject is telling the truth if the lie detector indicates a subject is telling the truth.

When the machine indicates a lie, what is the probability that the suspect is really lying? If the machine does not indicate a lie, what is the probability that the suspect is really telling the truth?

My solution if the probability that a test subject is chosen at random from the 200 in fact lie = 80/(80+5)=0.94

Then when 15% of people arrested lie, the probability that the suspect is really lying is 0.15*0.94=0.141

Step-by-step explanation:

When the machine indicates a lie, what is the probability that the suspect is really lying? If the machine does not indicate a lie, what is the probability that the suspect is really telling the truth?

My solution if the probability that a test subject is chosen at random from the 200 in fact lie = 80/(80+5)=0.94

Then, when 15% of people arrested lie, the probability that the suspect is really lying is 0.15*0.94=0.141

Step-by-step explanation:

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