According to the National Bridge Inspection Standard (NBIS), public bridges over 20 feet in length must be inspected and rated every 2 years. The NBIS rating scale ranges from 0 (poorest rating) to 9 (highest rating). University of Colorado engineers used a probabilistic model to forecast the inspection ratings of all major bridges in Denver. (Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, Feb. 2005.) For the year 2020, the engineers forecast that 9% of all major Denver bridges will have ratings of 4 or below.

Use the forecast to find the probability that in a random sample of 12 major Denver bridges, at least 4 will have an inspection rating of 4 or below in 2020.

1.80% probability that in a random sample of 12 major Denver bridges, at least 4 will have an inspection rating of 4 or below in 2020.

Step-by-step explanation:

For each bridge, there are only two possible outcomes. Either it has rating of 4 or below, or it does not. The probability of a bridge being rated 4 or below is independent from other bridges. So we use the binomial probability distribution to solve this problem.

Binomial probability distribution

The binomial probability is the probability of exactly x successes on n repeated trials, and X can only have two outcomes.

In which is the number of different combinations of x objects from a set of n elements, given by the following formula.

And p is the probability of X happening.

For the year 2020, the engineers forecast that 9% of all major Denver bridges will have ratings of 4 or below.

This means that

Use the forecast to find the probability that in a random sample of 12 major Denver bridges, at least 4 will have an inspection rating of 4 or below in 2020.

Either less than 4 have a rating of 4 or below, or at least 4 does. The sum of the probabilities of these events is 1.

So

We want

So

In which

Finally

1.80% probability that in a random sample of 12 major Denver bridges, at least 4 will have an inspection rating of 4 or below in 2020.

really really sorry if i'm

-12 -5(x + 4) = 3x

-12 - 5x - 20 = 3x

-12 - 20 - 5x = 3x

-32 - 5x = 3x

    + 5x   + 5x

-32 = 8x

8         8

- 4= x