Mathematics, 11.02.2020 22:53 Danielyanez

Three prisoners, A, B and C, are on death row. The governor decides to pardon one of the three and chooses at random the prisoner to pardon. He informs the warden the choice and requests that the name be kept secret for a few days. The next day, A tried to get warden to tell him who had been pardoned. The warden refuses. A then asks which of B or C will be executed. The warden thinks for a while, then tells A that B is to be executed. Warden's reasoning: Each prison has a 1/3 chance of being pardoned. Clearly, either B or C must be executed, so I have given A no information about whether A will be pardoned. A's reasoning: Given that B will be executed, then either A or C will be pardoned. My chance of being pardoned has risen to 1/2. Which one is correct, warden or A?

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Three prisoners, A, B and C, are on death row. The governor decides to pardon one of the three and c...