Mathematics, 02.11.2019 03:31 jerry7792

Schizophrenia affects about 1% of the population. imagine that scientists discover a simple blood test that can tell with 95% accuracy whether a person will develop schizophrenia. that is, 95% of the people who actually will develop schizophrenia will correctly test positive (but 5% will falsely test negative), and 95% of the people who actually will never develop schizophrenia will correctly test negative (but 5% will falsely test positive). you take the test and the results come back positive. what is the approximate probability that you will actually develop schizophrenia?

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Answer from: harkey

Using the Naive Bayes rule ; the probability that a tested person actually develops schizophrenia given that test result comes back positive is 0.161

Naive Bayes rule :

$P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A) * P(A)}{P(B)}$ P(A|B) = P of A being True given that B is True P(A) = probability of A P(B|A) = P of B bring true given that A is True P(B) = probability of B

Let :

P(A) = Probability of Schizophrenia = 1% = 0.01P(B) = probability of True positive result P(A|B) =? P(B|A) = P of positive result given person has schizophrenia = 95% = 0.95

The probability of obtaining a positive result :

P(B) = [P(B|A) × P(A)] + [P(B|A)' × P(A)']

P(B) = (0.95 × 0.01) + (0.05 × 0.99)

P(B) = 0.059

Hence,

$P(A|B) = \frac{0.95 \times 0.01}{0.059} = \frac{0.0095}{0.059} = 0.161$

Therefore, the probability of schizophrenia given a true positive result is 0.161

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Answer from: reneewilliams20

If you test positive, the approximate probability that you will actually develop schizophrenia is 16.10%.

Step-by-step explanation:

We have these following probabilities:

A 1% probability of having Schizophrenia.

A 99% of not having Schizophrenia.

If a person has Schizophrenia, a 95% probability of testing positive.

If a person does not have Schizophrenia, a 5% probability of testing positive.

What is the approximate probability that you will actually develop schizophrenia?

This can be formulated as the following problem:

What is the probability of B happening, knowing that A has happened.

It can be calculated by the following formula

$P = \frac{P(B).P(A/B)}{P(A)}$

Where P(B) is the probability of B happening, P(A/B) is the probability of A happening knowing that B happened and P(A) is the probability of A happening.

So:

What is the probability of you developing schizophrenia, given that you tested positive?

P(B) is the probability of the person having the disease. So P(B) = 0.01

P(A/B) is the probability of the person being diagnosticated, given that she has the disease. So P(A/B) = 0.95 .

P(A) is the probability of the person being diagnosticated. That is 95% of 1% and 5% of 99%. So

P(A) = 0.01(0.95) + 0.99(0.05) = 0.059

Finally

$P = \frac{P(B).P(A/B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.01*0.95}{0.059} = 0.1610$

If you test positive, the approximate probability that you will actually develop schizophrenia is 16.10%.

Answer from: Quest

A=bxh3.2x1.8=5.76 centimeters square

Answer from: Quest

the population of other specie of birds will decline or other specie of birds will find some alternate source of food to survive.

explanation:

according to the competitive exclusion principle, which is also known as gause's law, two specie living in the same niche and feeding on the same resource cannot co-exist stably.

as we have well studied the theory of natural selection which states that only those organisms survive which have better tendency to compete for food and adapt to the environmental conditions.

coming towards the question, what wi ll happen when one species outcompetes the other for the small fish , the other specie will not get enough food and will start to die or decline in population. eventually either other specie needs to find another alternative food source for itself or migrate at some other location where there is less competition otherwise it will just not exist anymore at that niche.

hope it !