Cerra co. expects to receive 5 million euros tomorrow as a result of selling goods to the netherlands. cerra estimates the standard deviation of daily percentage changes of the euro to be 1 percent over the last 100 days. assume that these percentage changes are normally distributed. use the value-at-risk (var) method based on a 95 percent confidence level. what is the maximum one-day loss in dollars if the expected percentage change of the euro tomorrow is 0.5 percent? the current spot rate of the euro (before considering the maximum one-day loss)

$58,075

Step-by-step explanation:

Given:

Expected amount to be received = 5 million euros

Standard deviation of daily percentage change of euros, σ = 1%

Confidence level = 95%

Expected percentage change of the euro tomorrow = 0.5 percent

let,

the current spot rate of the euro (before considering the maximum one-day loss = $1.01

Now,

The maximum one-day percentage loss

= Expected change of euro - 1.65 × σ                  

(here 1.65 is constant for 95% confidence)

= 0.5% - 1.65 × 1%

= -1.15%     (Here negative sign depicts the loss)

Therefore,

maximum one-day loss in dollars

= maximum one-day percentage loss × Exchange rate × Amount to be received

= -1.15% × $1.01 × 5 million euros

=  -0.0115 × 1.01 × 5,000,000

= -$58,075 (Here negative sign depicts the loss)

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step-by-step explanation: