Since the start of the Industrial Revolution more than 250 years ago, there has been a marked increase in average global temperature. Tom thinks that since this past year was cooler than normal, scientific claims that Earth's climate is changing must not be true. Tom's thinking is flawed because of which of the following?

Which suggests the most critical aspect of the peak oil theory? 1) controversy rages over rumors that the fracking lobby in washington has influenced the statistics. 2) supporters and critics argue endlessly over the rate of extraction and shape of the bell curve. 3) saudi arabia will soon have to begin fracking, leading to protests and further destabilization. 4) a new oil discovery means a fresh peak cycle, making that region the target of aggressors.