Read the excerpt from an interview. reporter: i’m standing here today with dr. kira klein, director of the international foundation for the study of viruses. dr. klein, what do you think of the recent report from the center for disease control on the likelihood of a flu epidemic? dr. klein: with so many new flu viruses popping up each year, and with the prevalence of international travel, i have to agree that an international flu epidemic is a real possibility. for which fictionalized story would this passage be most appropriate as source material?

Transplant operations have become routine. one common transplant operation is for kidneys. the most dangerous aspect of the procedure is the possibility that the body may reject the new organ. there are several new drugs available for such circumstances and the earlier the drug is administered, the higher the probability of averting rejection. the new england journal of medicine recently reported the development of a new urine test to detect early warning signs that the body is rejecting a transplanted kidney. however, like most other tests, the new test is not perfect. in fact, 20% of negative tests and 10% of positive tests prove to be incorrect. physicians know that in about 33% of kidney transplants the body tries to reject the organ. if the new test has a positive result (indicating early warning of rejection), what is the probability that the body is attempting to reject the kidney?