The cyclically-adjusted budget balance is: an estimate of the contractionary fiscal policy needed to close an inflationary gap an estimate of the contractionary fiscal policy needed to close an inflationary gap an estimate of the tax increase needed to compensate for larger government transfers so that the budget remains balanced. an estimate of the tax increase needed to compensate for larger government transfers so that the budget remains balanced. an estimate of the expansionary fiscal policy needed to close a recessionary gap an estimate of the expansionary fiscal policy needed to close a recessionary gap an estimate of what the budget balance would be if real GDP was exactly equal to potential output. an estimate of what the budget balance would be if real GDP was exactly equal to potential output. an estimate of what the budget balance would be if the unemployment rate was equal to zeto.