What will happen to the U. S. Housing Market?

Currently the price of homes has exceeded the 2006 peak, just before the housing bubble burst. The price index has increased more than 40% since 2012.

It has been many years now of a strong economy, with an economic expansion lasting for 11 years (since June 2009), which is actually record breaking. A lot of economists were expecting a recession soon, with the current health crisis not helping, and the recession finally arrived on June 2020.

The combination of historically high prices for homes and an economic recession can be very hurtful. The advantage of the current situation is that the level of delinquent or subprime mortgages is currently much lower than 14 years ago. Actually, the amount of debt per household has decreased since 2006, and is quite stable right now at moderate or low levels. Many households spent much of the past years paying off debt, so they didn't have time to take new debt.

If the recession gets worse, a price correction will be inevitable, but it wouldn't be as large as the 2007 decrease. Only in a few cities in California, Washington, Nevada and Oregon can you find situations similar to 2006, where a strong supply hasn't been enough to balance the prices due to a stronger demand and high mortgage debt. But even there, the situation will not be as bad.

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