How will
natural selection have changed the forest from
1990 to 2030?

There is strong interest in gaining an informed view of changes likely to occur in forest area and the impacts of these changes on production forestry and forest conservation. Despite the complexity of underlying causes, it is largely accepted that deforestation is mainly focused in the tropics and driven by conversion to agriculture. Similarly, energy demand and GDP are largely determining wood consumption and production. Based on these assumptions, we built a model predicting natural forests and planted forests’ evolution in the next 15 years, and compared the results of the modelling with survey results from country expertise. The results suggest that on a global level, forest resources loss is likely to slow down. The forests that are most at risk of conversion were clearly identified within the tropical domain, while the forest under protected areas showed very little risk of being converted to other land uses in the near future.

it will increase due to the time span